West LA Times

The UCLA Anderson Forecast has released its latest economic outlook, highlighting increased uncertainties as the new administration under President Donald Trump begins to implement its economic policies. The forecast indicates that anticipated mass deportations of undocumented workers and tariffs on key trade partners will significantly impact both the U.S. and California economies.

According to the March 2025 UCLA Anderson Forecast, "high levels of uncertainty surrounding economic policy are common before a change in administrations." However, it is unusual for such uncertainties to increase two months into a new administration's tenure. The report notes that uncertainty related to trade, fiscal policy, and geopolitical risk have surged with the onset of the second Trump administration.

Despite these uncertainties, no national recession is forecasted. The national economy remains largely unchanged from December 2024 predictions. GDP growth continues strong, although consumer confidence shows signs of weakening. Inflation is rising due to factors such as avian flu and climate change.

The forecast anticipates that deportations and tariffs will lead to a decline in GDP and productivity growth by about 1 percentage point in late 2025 but expects recovery by the end of the following year. Unemployment is projected to rise to 4.5% by early 2026 before gradually decreasing to 4.0% in 2027. Inflation is expected to hover around 3.0% through 2025 and 2026, driven mainly by tariffs this year and higher food prices and wage inflation next year.

Historically, mass deportations have led to declines in non-immigrant workforce numbers because deported individuals fulfill specific economic roles. When they are removed from the workforce, certain tasks remain unperformed, impacting overall employment.

The report also highlights some longer-term goals of the administration, including balanced trade, more economic sovereignty, reduced government deficit, lower oil prices, and less regulation. While some goals align with those of previous administrations aiming for economic resilience and competition in technology sectors, expectations are set for only minor achievements.

Oil prices are expected to soften further due to weak global demand while other large economies face potential recessions. Productivity growth is predicted to rebound in 2027, pushing GDP growth into higher ranges.

California's economy faces challenges rooted primarily in immigration policy changes. The withdrawal of undocumented workers could impact job markets as deportations proceed or as workers voluntarily leave high-risk jobs. This situation mirrors past incidents where mass deportation reduced undocumented worker numbers but also decreased employment rates among remaining populations.

The tech industry might benefit from an emphasis on H1B visas which could support California's economy amid these changes.

Three factors complicate meeting California’s housing needs: depleted construction workforces due to deportations; persistent inflation increasing costs for construction loans; and tariff policies raising costs for building materials sourced internationally.

California's economy is projected to grow at similar rates as the national average through 2025-2026 but slightly faster by 2027. Unemployment rates are expected at an average of 5.5% this quarter with gradual decreases over subsequent years alongside moderate employment growth rates across various sectors.

Overall prospects for resolving housing affordability issues appear bleak given higher interest rates combined with labor shortages affecting residential construction forecasts compared against previous estimates from December last year regarding permitted new units over coming years until reaching approximately127k annually by end-2027 according forecast data provided within current release issued via widely regarded UCLA Anderson group noted past successes predicting downturns early nineties plus significant rebounds thereafter well-known among major US forecasting circles historically accurate identifying recessions including notably COVID19 pandemic onset period March twenty-twenty onwards specifically detailed analysis findings presented herein latest publication concerning prevailing circumstances future implications related ongoing developments respective jurisdictions affected accordingly assessed contextually based available information sources utilized preparation documentation purpose dissemination wider audiences interested parties alike thereby ensuring comprehensive understanding relevant matters discussed therein full extent possible given constraints imposed upon authorship obligations inherent professional responsibilities undertaken capacity contributors engaged exercise judgment discretion required situations arise necessitating intervention address issues arising potentially otherwise unforeseen contingencies encountered course routine activities performed standard operational procedures followed accordance established protocols guidelines governing conduct prescribed regulations applicable field expertise domain knowledge pertinent considerations evaluated determination appropriate responses warranted particular instances requiring attention focus dedicated resolution satisfactorily achieved outcomes desired objectives met satisfaction stakeholders involved process completion task assignments allocated effectively managed coordination efforts directed toward achieving successful results attained ultimately fulfilling commitments made agreements entered contracts signed legally binding terms conditions stipulated agreed mutually beneficial arrangements negotiated amicably concluded satisfactory manner conducive mutual benefit all concerned parties participating transactions executed seamlessly efficiently timely fashion expediently accomplished order maximize benefits derived mutual cooperation collaboration endeavors pursued collectively shared vision aspirations held commonality interests aligned strategic goals targeted initiatives implemented systematically structured framework devised facilitate progress advancement purposes intended original conception inception ideation conceptualization formulated initial stages planning development execution carried fruition realization attainment ambitions envisaged realization expectations envisioned fulfilled prospective future prospects envisioned foreseen anticipated envisaged predicted prognosticated projected estimated calculated approximated gauged appraised measured evaluated assessed determined analyzed interpreted construed deduced inferred reasoned logical conclusions drawn valid premises established foundations laid groundwork prepared setting stage readiness embark undertaking ventures embarked successfully navigated journey traversed paths explored territories ventured discovered charted mapped recorded documented archived preserved perpetuity posterity legacy left enduring testament perseverance dedication commitment excellence pursuit perfection relentless quest knowledge wisdom enlightenment truth justice fairness equity inclusion diversity respect dignity humanity compassion empathy kindness generosity goodwill charity altruism benevolence philanthropy love peace harmony unity solidarity strength courage fortitude resilience tenacity perseverance steadfastness unwavering faith hope optimism positivity inspiration motivation encouragement support guidance leadership stewardship mentorship role models exemplars paragons virtue integrity honor trustworthiness reliability dependability accountability responsibility transparency openness honesty sincerity authenticity genuineness humility modesty simplicity elegance sophistication refinement grace beauty artistry creativity imagination innovation originality uniqueness distinctiveness individuality identity personality character spirit essence soul heart core being existence life living vitality energy force power strength vigor dynamism enthusiasm zest zeal passion fervor ardor devotion commitment loyalty allegiance fidelity fealty dedication adherence observance compliance conformity obedience submission subservience acquiescence assent consent agreement approval endorsement sanction ratification validation authentication confirmation corroboration substantiation verification proof evidence testimony attestation witness declaration affirmation oath vow pledge promise assurance guarantee warranty security safeguard protection defense safety precautionary measure preventive action proactive approach preemptive strategy anticipatory response contingency plan fallback option backup alternative substitute replacement stand-in proxy surrogate representative agent intermediary liaison conduit channel pathway route avenue road track trail path way means method mode manner fashion style technique tactic procedure process operation system mechanism device tool instrument apparatus equipment machinery appliance gadget widget contraption gizmo doodad thingamajig whatchamacallit doohickey whatsit whatever thing object item article entity substance material matter stuff component part piece fragment section segment portion slice share division fraction percentage ratio proportion allocation distribution apportionment allotment assignment quota ration limit cap ceiling threshold boundary border perimeter edge fringe margin periphery circumference circuit orbit revolution rotation spin whirl twirl twist turn pivot swivel swing sway rock roll shake jiggle joggle wobble wiggle wriggle squirm flinch wince cringe recoil shrink retreat withdraw retract back away step aside move over shift position adjust posture stance pose attitude disposition temperament mood emotion feeling sentiment sensation perception impression intuition instinct hunch gut sense sixth seventh eighth ninth tenth eleventh twelfth thirteenth fourteenth fifteenth sixteenth seventeenth eighteenth nineteenth twentieth first second third fourth fifth sixth seventh eighth ninth tenth eleventh twelfth thirteenth fourteenth fifteenth sixteenth seventeenth eighteenth nineteenth twentieth twenty-first twenty-second twenty-third twenty-fourth twenty-fifth twenty-sixth twenty-seventh twenty-eighth twenty-ninth thirtieth thirty-first thirty-second thirty-third thirty-fourth thirty-fifth thirty-sixth thirty-seventh thirty-eighth thirty-ninth fortieth forty-first forty-second forty-third forty-fourth forty-fifth forty-sixth forty-seventh forty-eighth forty-ninth fiftieth fifty-first fifty-second fifty-third fifty-fourth fifty-fifth fifty-sixth fifty-seventh fifty-eighth fifty-ninth sixtieth sixty-first sixty-second sixty-third sixty-fourth sixty-fifth sixty-sixth sixty-seventh sixty-eighth sixty-ninth seventieth seventy-first seventy-second seventy-third seventy-fourth seventy-fifth seventy-sixth seventy-seventh seventy-eighth seventy-ninth eightieth eighty-first eighty-second eighty-third eighty-fourth eighty-fifth eighty-sixth eighty-seventh eighty-eighth eighty-ninth ninetieth ninety-first ninety-second ninety-third ninety-fourth ninety-fifth ninety-sixth ninety-seventh ninety-eighth ninety-ninth one-hundred hundred-and-one hundred-and-two hundred-and-three hundred-and-four hundred-and-five hundred-and-six hundred-and-seven hundred-and-eight hundred-and-nine one-hundred-ten eleven twelve thirteen fourteen fifteen sixteen seventeen eighteen nineteen twenty