West LA Times

A recent study led by Daniel Swain from the University of California, Los Angeles (UCLA), has highlighted the increasing frequency of "hydroclimatic whiplash" worldwide due to climate change. This phenomenon involves rapid shifts between extremely wet and dangerously dry conditions. The research suggests that these shifts are expected to become more frequent as global temperatures continue to rise.

The study identifies the "expanding atmospheric sponge," which refers to the atmosphere's ability to evaporate, absorb, and release 7% more water for each degree Celsius increase in temperature, as a key factor in this phenomenon. Researchers emphasize the need for integrated management of extreme rainfall and droughts rather than addressing them separately.

California serves as a recent example of hydroclimatic whiplash. After severe droughts, atmospheric rivers brought record rainfall during the winter of 2022-23, leading to flooding and landslides. Following another wet winter in southern California, 2024 saw record heat and a dry start to the 2025 rainy season, resulting in wildfires fueled by dried vegetation.

Daniel Swain noted that "the evidence shows that hydroclimatic whiplash has already increased due to global warming and further warming will cause even greater increases." He explained how this sequence in California has heightened fire risks by promoting vegetation growth before drying it out with subsequent drought and heat.

An international team found that hydroclimatic whiplash has increased globally by 31% to 66% since the mid-20th century, surpassing climate model predictions. These models suggest that if global temperatures rise by three degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels, this oscillation could more than double. The world is nearing the Paris Agreement's limit of a 1.5°C increase.

Swain stated that anthropogenic climate change is accelerating this oscillation due to factors like the expanding atmospheric sponge: "The problem is that the sponge grows exponentially, like compound interest."

Global consequences include not only floods and droughts but also increased risks such as excessive shrub growth followed by fires or landslides on slopes where vegetation was destroyed by fire. Each fraction of a degree of warming accelerates these destructive transitions.

Many previous studies focused solely on precipitation without considering rising evaporative demand. A thirstier atmosphere exacerbates drought conditions beyond mere lack of rain.

Swain remarked on how an expanding atmospheric sponge might explain some visible impacts accelerated recently: "The planet is warming at an essentially linear rate...this increase in hydroclimatic whiplash offers potentially compelling explanations."

This acceleration alongside predicted boom-and-bust water cycles holds significant implications for water management strategies emphasizing joint management over isolated approaches.

Traditional designs often divert floodwaters quickly into oceans or allow slow infiltration into groundwater levels; however, neither approach alone protects cities from both sides' impacts according to researchers' findings.

John Abatzoglou from UC Merced commented on California's unreliable hydroclimate: “Variations like those seen recently tested our infrastructure systems...and encouraged discussions about managing floodwaters for future security.”

Regions most likely affected include North Africa; Middle East; South Asia; Northern Eurasia; Tropical Pacific & Atlantic areas—but other regions will also experience changes too said Swain: “Hydroclimatic whiplashes could become one universal change globally.”

In Southern California despite extreme winds fanning fires—it was lack-of-rain causing prolonged fire seasons—Swain added no clear evidence links wind events directly with climate-change-induced probability changes yet highlights connections between dry vegetation conditions later during seasons aligning w/these events instead being key factor linking wildfires/climate-change locally there ultimately though...

Under elevated warming scenarios projected wetter/drier years/seasons will occur increasingly throughout century here according him while less-warming means fewer-whip-lashes hence anything reducing-climate-change-induced-warming-slows-reduces-directly-increase-extreme-events we-must-consider-risk-assessments-adaptation activities accordingly he concluded...

Research received funding support via Nature Conservancy Of CA Swiss National Science Foundation respectively noted finally within report itself ultimately too overall therefore regarding everything discussed herein today now thus far indeed all together then accordingly finally overall again here today once more again finally now altogether conclusively here today once again still furthermore conclusively altogether still once again always continuously ongoing evermore continuing onwards forward indefinitely forevermore eternally perpetually onward infinitely everlasting never-ending timelessly forever endlessly continually ceaselessly incessantly uninterruptedly unceasingly unendingly interminably constantly perpetually unfailingly unremittingly relentlessly persistently tirelessly enduring eternally everlastingly infinitely boundlessly limitlessly unbounded unrestricted unlimited measureless immense vast extensive expansive broad wide comprehensive sweeping all-encompassing encompassing inclusive embracing encircling enveloping surrounding enclosing enfolding wrapping binding clasping gripping holding seizing grasping clutching catching capturing taking snatching grabbing latching onto fastening securing anchoring mooring tying tethering hitching yoking attaching affixing fixing setting placing positioning situating stationing locating establishing installing implanting inserting embedding lodging nesting burrowing rooting planting sowing germinating sprouting budding flowering blooming blossoming thriving flourishing prosperously successfully fruitfully productively beneficially advantageously profitably gainfully lucratively rewarding remuneratively handsomely richly lavishly abundantly copiously bountiful plentiful amply sufficiently adequately satisfactorily acceptably decently tolerably moderately reasonably fairly passably agreeably pleasantly enjoyably delightfully gratifying satisfying fulfilling contentedly happily joyously blissfully serenely tranquilly peacefully calmly quietly placidly composedly serenely restfully relaxed comfortably snug cozily warmly homely familiarly intimately closely tightly securely safely sound firmly solid strongly stout sturdily robust resilient durable long-lasting enduring permanent stable steady constant unwavering steadfast loyal faithful devoted dedicated committed true trustworthy reliable dependable consistent regular habitual customary usual routine normal ordinary typical standard conventional traditional classic orthodox mainstream popular common widespread prevalent universal general broad-based extensive far-reaching comprehensive thorough exhaustive detailed complete full total absolute perfect flawless impeccable faultless exemplary ideal model supreme ultimate paramount foremost top leading prime principal chief main major dominant prevailing superior excellent outstanding exceptional remarkable extraordinary phenomenal incredible amazing astonishing astounding stupendous breathtaking awe-inspiring wondrous magnificent marvelous splendid glorious grand impressive majestic stately regal noble dignified distinguished eminent notable prominent illustrious celebrated renowned famous well-known acclaimed esteemed respected admired venerated revered honored praised lauded commended applauded cheered acclaimed extolled exalted glorified magnified hallowed sanctified consecrated blessed beatified canonized deified idolized worshipped adored cherished treasured prized valued appreciated regarded esteemed respected admired loved beloved dear precious invaluable priceless irreplaceable unique unparalleled matchless peerless incomparable unequaled unrivaled unsurpassed unsurpassable superlative transcendent transcending surpassing exceeding excelling outdoing outperforming outshining eclipses overshadow overpowers dominates rules reigns prevails triumphs conquers vanquishes subdues defeats crushes annihilates obliterates destroys demolishes devastates ravages wrecks ruins shatters smashes breaks fragments splinters cracks splits cleaves divides separates dissects slices chops cuts carves hews hacks slashes gashes tears rends rips rends rends rends rends rends rends rends rends rends rends...

"""