West LA Times

Former President Donald Trump’s use of violent vocabulary in speeches has increased over time, reaching a higher level than any other U.S. major party presidential candidate analyzed in a study comparing his speeches to past and present politicians and foreign dictators. The study indicates that the use of violent vocabulary can have various effects on listeners with aggressive personalities, including motivating them to vote or boosting support for political violence.

Trump’s embrace of populism, which initially included references to “the people” and using “us” more during his first presidential run, now involves more frequent use of “them,” often targeting such “out-groups” as immigrants and perceived “elites.”

“No president has ever spoken like that before,” President Joe Biden said of former President Donald Trump during their June 27, 2024 debate. He referred to Trump’s suggestion of seeking political retribution, a part of the projected image that won Trump the Republican nomination and presidency in 2016—one that is on display again in the current presidential election campaign.

A UCLA working paper, "Donald Trump’s Words," explores the distinctiveness of the Republican presidential nominee’s rhetoric and places it in a broader historical perspective. The study, published by the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), is co-authored by UCLA department of political science graduate student Nikita Savin and Daniel Treisman, a UCLA political science professor and research associate with NBER.

Savin and Treisman analyzed transcripts of 99 Trump speeches from April 2015 to June 2024—focusing on political rallies and mass meetings aimed at the general public—and compared them to speeches made by other major politicians past and present, including all American main party presidential candidates since 2008, and foreign dictators. Sourced from online archives and transcripts, Trump’s vocabulary in these speeches was also compared with political rhetoric dictionaries categorizing words based on their usage in sample texts.

The study found an increased use of violent language over time and a sharp decline in references to economic performance. The authors identified a form of "negative populism" in Trump’s speeches, exemplified by frequent use of the pronoun “they” and a rise in pejorative terms for elites. Although dictionary-based text analysis only measures word frequency without delving deeper into contexts, it effectively identifies patterns.

“We know from past research that inflammatory rhetoric can prompt a few unstable individuals to engage in political violence,” Treisman said. “Given that, it’s important to carefully monitor the speech of radical populists like Trump.”

Violent language in the study involves words with violent connotations across various subjects but does not equate to calls for violence directly. The co-authors searched political speeches for 142 keywords based on a 2019 dictionary compiled by Treisman and former European Bank for Reconstruction and Development chief economist Sergei Guriev.

Trump's use of violent language includes references to crime, war, immigration, and even shark attacks. Citing past studies, Savin and Treisman note this type of vocabulary can affect listeners with aggressive personalities by motivating them to vote or boosting support for violence among such individuals. Scholars have documented increases in hate crimes following Trump's campaign rallies and tweets.

Despite being president during two foreign wars' start and other ongoing conflicts abroad, Biden's use of violent vocabulary during both the 2020 and 2024 presidential campaigns was consistently less than Trump's. Hillary Clinton's use during her 2015-2016 campaign slightly exceeded Trump's moderate level at that time.

Trump's recent rally speeches employ his most violent language yet recorded. These were only marginally less violent than Cuban dictator Fidel Castro's May Day speeches from 1966 to 2006.

The study also noted a decrease in references to economic performance among all presidential candidates since 2012. This might be because insurgent candidates running on economic platforms have historically lost elections since 1952.

Trump refers relatively infrequently to public services like education and health care compared to Democratic candidates who consistently mention these topics more often than Republicans.

Most strikingly, Trump has been effective at creating his brand of negative populism through his rhetoric. While traditional right-wing populism balances opposition to elites with inclusive rhetoric about "the people," Trump refers less often to "the people" but frequently targets out-groups like immigrants or unpopular elites using "them."

During his first campaign from 2015-2016, he embraced positive populism but since then has steadily declined references to "the people" while increasing pejorative mentions of elites. His rhetoric contains stronger markers of populism than any other studied candidate except Bernie Sanders.

“How Trump’s vocabulary will evolve remains uncertain,” Treisman said. “But the rising temperature bears watching.”