An analysis released by the Center for Neighborhood Knowledge at the UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs on June 2 found that recent Immigration and Customs Enforcement arrest patterns do not align with the agency’s stated goal of targeting the most dangerous unauthorized immigrants.
The study examined ICE arrests from January 2024 to February 2026, comparing data from the final 13 months of President Joe Biden’s administration and the first 13 months under President Donald Trump. The report found that while total ICE arrests increased by 200% under Trump, only a modest 35% increase was observed in arrests of individuals classified as the “worst of the worst”—those convicted of violent crimes or two or more felonies. As a result, this group’s share among all ICE arrests dropped from a monthly average of 28% under Biden to just 12% under Trump.
Researchers noted that during this period, individuals with no criminal convictions, pending charges, or identified gang affiliations made up an increasingly large proportion of those arrested. Arrests in this category rose to five times their level during Biden’s term and eventually became the largest share among all ICE apprehensions. Paul Ong, director of the UCLA Center for Neighborhood Knowledge, said, “The findings reveal a troubling pattern of misrepresentation surrounding ICE’s stated enforcement goals. The data shows that ICE shifted its priorities away from the most dangerous individuals and increasingly focused on immigrants who pose no public safety threat.”
The report also highlighted changes in how arrests were conducted. At-large arrests—those made within communities rather than directly from prisons or jails—accounted for more than two-thirds of the net increase in “worst-of-the-worst” apprehensions between administrations. These community-based operations disproportionately involved older individuals; those aged 50 or older comprised one-third (up from one-fifth) among such arrestees during Trump’s first year in office.
Additional findings showed disparities across ethnic groups: Latinos accounted for a weekly average increase in deportees—from about 2,000 to over 4,600—in early months under Trump; Asian immigrant arrests increased more than fivefold compared to figures under Biden. Researchers wrote that these trends may reflect broader political objectives: “the findings may also reflect broader political goals to reshape the nation’s demographic composition.”
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