A new poll by the UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs released on Apr. 3 found that 40% of likely voters remain undecided about their choice for Los Angeles’ next mayor, just two months before the primary election.
The large number of undecided voters suggests an unpredictable race ahead as candidates work to distinguish themselves. The poll is part of UCLA Luskin’s annual Quality of Life Index, which measures how Angelenos feel about issues such as safety, cost of living, health care and the environment.
According to the survey, incumbent Mayor Karen Bass leads with 25% support among likely primary voters. Spencer Pratt, a reality television personality, follows with 11%, while Los Angeles City Councilmember Nithya Raman has garnered 9%. Tech entrepreneur Adam Miller and housing activist Rae Huang each received support from 3% of respondents. Nine percent said they would vote for a different candidate among the total field of fourteen contenders. If no candidate secures a majority in the June 2 primary, the top two finishers will advance to a November runoff.
“It is unusual for 40% of likely voters to be unsure of their choice just two months before an LA mayoralty election,” said Zev Yaroslavsky, director of the Los Angeles Initiative at UCLA Luskin. “Although Mayor Bass faces the most challenging reelection of an incumbent mayor in decades, it is highly likely that this election will be decided in a November runoff. A lot can change between now and then, so it’s a wide-open race.”
The poll surveyed 813 likely primary voters between March 15 and March 29 by phone and online in English and Spanish. It also measured candidate support across demographic groups: Bass received backing from more than half (53%) of African American respondents but less support among white, Latino, Asian and Pacific Islander participants where undecided responses were higher than her totals. Across all age groups—18-39 years old up through those over age 65—the largest segment remained undecided.
UCLA’s role as host institution for this research aligns with its broader academic mission; it has been associated with Nobel laureates and MacArthur Fellows according to its official website. The university has earned national and international recognition for excellence in scholarship, arts and athletics according to its official website, fosters diverse perspectives through academic programs according to its official website, operates within California’s public university system according to its official website, and supports these activities on a campus spanning over four hundred acres according to its official website.
Funding for this year’s Quality of Life Index was provided by Meyer and Renee Luskin through the Los Angeles Initiative along with support from the California Community Foundation. Complete results are set for release at the UCLA Luskin Summit on April 15.
