A record-breaking heat wave affected the western United States in March, with UCLA experts warning on Apr. 1 that climate change and a potential El Niño could lead to another extremely hot summer.
The discussion comes as communities face growing risks from prolonged and severe heat waves, highlighting the need for new strategies to manage rising temperatures. Experts say these trends underscore broader challenges related to public health, urban planning, and possible climate interventions.
Alex Hall, professor and director at UCLA’s Institute of the Environment and Sustainability, said: “What we’re seeing reflects a warmer baseline climate. Even without a strong El Niño in place, temperatures are higher than they would have been a few decades ago, and that increases the likelihood of unusually warm events. As we move toward summer, natural variability will continue to play a role, but it will be acting on top of a warmer climate. That means higher odds of persistent and widespread heat.” He added: “If an El Niño does develop later this year, it could further increase the chances of heat extremes, but the underlying warming trend is already doing a lot of the work. The climate system has warmed enough that some heat events that would have been very unlikely in the past are now much more plausible. That shift in the baseline is the key story.”
V. Kelly Turner from UCLA Luskin School of Public Affairs said: “March temperatures were extreme for summer — and it was still winter. A lot of people and organizations were caught off guard by such hot temperatures so early. It drives home the fact that heat is an all-season, all-climate issue that requires rethinking conventional wisdom about how to plan and manage it.” Turner also highlighted tools like CalHeat Score: “CalHeat Score is an important step in the right direction. It doesn’t just tell you how hot it is; it uses public health data to show how risky conditions are for your health.”
David Neelin from UCLA’s Department of Atmospheric & Oceanic Sciences addressed trends in extreme weather: “For each half a degree warming in global temperature, the frequency of long-duration heat waves increases by more than occurred during the previous half degree warming, and each fraction of a degree of warming will have more impact than the last.”
Ted Parson at UCLA Law commented on potential responses if current measures fall short: “Extreme weather events – including seasonal or yearly extremes like those we now seem to be facing from the El Niño that’s gathering steam – are among the impacts that are less precisely projected by climate models… Current research also suggests that these events are among the impacts that Earth system interventions (ESIs) like stratospheric aerosol injection… might be most effective at reducing – albeit imperfectly and temporarily.” Parson continued: “The worse things get, the more important it is to have multiple responses known… These things can’t be the complete response to climate change, but it’s looking increasingly like they might be used or even necessary.”
Salmaan Craig from UCLA Architecture emphasized sustainable solutions such as passive cooling techniques for buildings.
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