West LA Times

The UCLA Anderson Forecast released its latest report which highlighted key economic trends and projections for the near future. The forecast painted a positive picture, stating that the fear of a U.S. recession had diminished due to various factors, including fiscal policies and consumer spending.

According to the report, despite a slight decline in January 2024 retail sales and housing starts, the cause was attributed to severe weather conditions in the eastern United States rather than a decrease in consumer or builder activity. The forecast also mentioned that hiring remained robust in January and February, with expectations that the Federal Reserve would not decrease the fed funds rate until later in the year.

In terms of state-level economic performance, California stood out with a GDP growth rate of 3.8% from the first to the third quarter of 2023, surpassing all but three large states in the country. The growth in California was primarily driven by tech and aerospace industries, similar to the growth seen in Washington.

The report also delved into the economic impact of the writers and actors strikes that affected the entertainment industry in 2023. Forecast director Jerry Nickelsburg provided an analysis of the strikes, highlighting the complexities of assessing their economic repercussions. Nickelsburg emphasized the need to consider various factors, such as the industry's adaptation to digital media and changing business models over the years.

As the UCLA Anderson Forecast continues to monitor economic indicators and trends, the outlook remains cautiously optimistic, with a focus on potential challenges and opportunities on the horizon.