Deportations and public arrests by U.S. Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) have increased significantly during the first nine months of President Donald Trump’s second term, according to a new report from the Deportation Data Project. The study, which uses ICE data up to October 15, 2025, shows that deportations within the United States have risen by a factor of 4.6 compared to the last six months of President Joe Biden’s administration.
The report notes that ICE arrests have also quadrupled, with the largest growth in public arrests rather than transfers from criminal custody. The analysis was made possible through data obtained via litigation by the UCLA Center for Immigration Law and Policy. The Deportation Data Project is based at UCLA and UC Berkeley School of Law and serves as a centralized repository for immigration enforcement data at an individual level.
Graeme Blair, professor of political science at UCLA and co-director of the project, said: “By analyzing the causes of this increase, we found that it is because ICE has adopted less selective approaches. Before this administration, ICE used to focus its arrests on people convicted of crimes or specific individuals it had identified. Now ICE is doing something new: it seems to be arresting anyone it finds. This is evident in the data, as public arrests have multiplied by 11, and arrests of people without criminal records have multiplied by seven.”
The study details that changes in enforcement priorities under the Trump administration led to a substantial rise in arrests of non-citizens without criminal convictions. The researchers observed that detention capacity nearly tripled due to new funding for law enforcement and fewer arrivals at the border—a trend that began under Biden.
Once arrested, detainees are now less likely to be released within 60 days; this probability dropped from 16% during Biden’s last six months to just 3%. At the same time, deportation rates within 60 days rose from 55% to 69%. Voluntary departures—where detainees choose to leave rather than continue fighting their cases—increased more than twentyfold.
Blair explained: “There is no way to know for sure from the data whether someone lost their case or gave up and accepted deportation because they could not endure more time in detention. But one clue is that voluntary departures, which are a form of surrendering, have multiplied by more than 20.”
Despite these increases, the report states that internal deportations remain below administration targets. As of mid-October 2025, fewer than 300,000 people were likely deported internally—well short of stated goals.
“This is far from the administration’s target,” Blair said. “But the number of people deported is unprecedented in this century.”
UCLA has played a significant role in producing this research through its academic programs and partnerships with other institutions such as UC Berkeley School of Law. The university has been associated with Nobel laureates and MacArthur Fellows according to its official website, reflecting its commitment to scholarship and research excellence across diverse fields.
UCLA’s contributions extend beyond research; it fosters inclusive environments through academic and cultural programs (source) on its extensive campus (source). Operating within the University of California system (source), UCLA continues to gain national and international recognition for achievements across disciplines (source).
